
The Latin American shopping center industry in 2016
A GREAT YEAR AHEAD
2016 seems to bring good prospects for the Latin American shopping center industry. Conservatively, we estimate that this year over 100 new shopping centers will be open throughout Latin America, representing a total investment of approximately US$4,000 billion, which represents a regional increase of just over 6% in total GLA . Latin America begins 2016 with about 1,800 malls with a total GLA of nearly 50 million square meters.
As it happened in 2015, the countries where most activity is expected are: Mexico, where the availability of institutional capital sources, especially from the FIBRAS (Mexican REIT’s) will continue to encourage new developments. Colombia, where developers from different countries are building some of the major malls and a market where little by little the strata-title ownership format is giving place to a modern leasing format. And Peru where the beginning of the year will be somehow slow compared to previous years due to El Niño and general elections.
Chile will have some activity and will remain the largest exporter of retail in the region. Brazil will see slower growth than in the recent past due to the recession and political turmoil, the country will be focused on the organization of the 2016 Olympic Games.
The rest of the region will also see growth; there are some interesting projects being developed in Paraguay, Bolivia and Panama. Finally, we expect to see the first signs of recovery in Argentina after the recent change of government.
2015 was one of the best years for the Latin American shopping centers industry in its 50-year history (the first mall of our continent, Iguatemi São Paulo, was inaugurated on November 28, 1966) and currently the region has a robust and expanding industry. Despite the slowing down of our region’s economies, the middle class in Latin America keeps growing and is increasingly demanding new modern shopping centers. Currently, the development of shopping centers does not occur only in the big metropolitan areas but increasingly in secondary and tertiary cities.
TRENDS
In 2016, despite the increase in interest rates and the devaluation of our currencies, the shopping center industry will continue to have availability of institutional capital for financing new projects. We will also see the continuous arrival of new international brands, which increasingly face more difficulty finding local operators. The development of Outlet Centers seems to take a new brio in the new year, which will force retailers to consider opening factory stores. Luxury retail will keep popping up all over our region. Likewise, Fast Fashion chains continue to increase its influence. And, we will continue to see consolidation of different industry sectors, from supermarkets, pharmacies to multi-brand franchise operators.
IN SUMMARY
2015 was a prolific year for Lizan Retail Advisors (LRA); we visited most of the countries of the region on different projects and accompanying different clients, we were invited to attend and speak at major industry events, such as NRF’s Big Show, ICSC’s Recon and MAPIC. Also, we were also interviewed or mentioned in about 80 articles, some of them in important international publications such as Women’s Wear Daily (WWD), Forbes, Euromonitor, Financial Times and the Washington Post, among others.
In 2016, we will keep advising retailers on their international expansion strategies as well as providing development, tenant mix and leasing advisory to developers. But above all, we will continue contributing to the growth of the shopping center industry worldwide, remaining as a reference point for anything related to shopping centers in Latin America.
Note: Below you will find my 2015 interviews and articles, which provide a comprehensive picture of what happened in the shopping center industry worldwide:
Estrena País 40 plazas comerciales | Reforma | Mexico | December 26, 2015 |
Se rezaga México en outlets | Reforma | Mexico | December 12, 2015 |
Are Outlet Centers the Shopping Malls of the Future? | Euromonitor International | Global | December 12, 2015 |
Mapic Drums Up Business Despite Security Fears | Women’s Wear Daily | USA | November 30, 2015 |
Por qué las ciudades crecen hacia arriba | Metros Cubicos | Mexico | November 23, 2015 |
A’GACI quiere socios para competir en venta de ropa. | El Universal | Mexico | November 20, 2015 |
Los 10 malls más grandes de México | El Financiero | Mexico | November 17, 2015 |
¿Llegó el final de los grandes centros comerciales? | El Financiero | Mexico | November 17, 2015 |
Outlet Centers. Una Mirada Internacional del negocio | Al Detalle | Mexico | November 1, 2015 |
Oleada de marcas triplicará outlets en la siguiente década | El Financiero | Mexico | October 25, 2015 |
Spotlight on Latin America. Developing against the odds. | Reed Midem | Global | October 1, 2015 |
El Retail y los Centros Comerciales de Lujo en América Latina: | Inmobiliare | Mexico | October 22, 2015 |
LatAm leisure spend potential growth driver for mall operators | Financial Times | UK | October 22, 2015 |
Why the Nike store in L.A. looks so different from the one in Tuscaloosa | The Washington Post | USA | October 20, 2015 |
ALIANZA PARA EXPANDIR FAST FASHION | Al Detalle | Mexico | October 15, 2015 |
Centros comerciales, de moda en Latinoamérica | Portafolio | Colombia | October 2, 2015 |
¿Por qué están en aumento los centros comerciales en América Latina? | Diario Libre | Dominican Republic | September 26, 2015 |
The shopping mall becomes king in Latin America | Financial Times | UK | September 23, 2015 |
Jorge Lizan at Convex 2015 | Perú Retail | Peru | September 21, 2015 |
El ocaso de Santa Fe | El Universal | Mexico | September 21, 2015 |
Retailers peruanos tendrán que adaptarse a oleada fast fashion para no desaparecer | Perú Retail | Peru | September 16, 2015 |
Retailers Latinoamericanos se expanden globalmente | Perú Retail | Peru | August 31, 2015 |
Retailers Latinoamericanos expandiéndose globalmente | Inmobiliare | Mexico | August 1, 2015 |
La difícil relación entre los desarrolladores de centros comerciales y sus inquilinos | Perú Retail | Peru | August 4, 2015 |
¿Por qué la inseguridad impulsó los centros comerciales? | Forbes México | Mexico | August 3, 2015 |
La tienda en el 2020 | Perú Retail | Peru | July 22, 2015 |
Fondos de inversión impulsan expansión e innovación del retail peruano | Perú Retail | Peru | July 20, 2015 |
Why Personalization is Vital to Retail Relevance | Sourcing Journal | USA | July 16, 2015 |
La revolución del retail | Anuario Inmobiliario | Argentina | July 1, 2015 |
Conozca a los expositores de Convex 2015, Convención & Exposición Retail | Perú Retail | Peru | July 12, 2015 |
México: Pais líder en centros comerciales | Real Estate Market & Lifestyle | Mexico | July 1, 2015 |
¿Cuánto valen las cadenas retail más importantes de México? | México? Informa BTL | Mexico | July 1, 2015 |
Obtiene Masaryk plusvalía de 20% | Reforma | Mexico | June 25, 2015 |
Abrams of The Lansco Corp.: Proud of 34 store project | NYREJ | USA | June 23, 2015 |
The Store and Mall of the Future | Inmobiliare | Mexico | June 1, 2015 |
La tecnología revoluciona el comercio minorista y los centros comerciales | Perú Retail | Peru | June 16, 2015 |
Los Nuevos Hot Spots del Retail Latinoamericano | Perú Retail | Peru | June 15, 2015 |
Lideran renta 5 plazas comerciales en DF | Reforma | Mexico | June 8, 2015 |
Sube 20% el valor de casas con malls | Reforma | Mexico | June 2, 2015 |
La industria más evolucionada en México: Jorge Lizán | En Concreto | Mexico | May 25, 2015 |
El retail peruano es uno de los más atractivos y dinámicos de la región. | Perú Retail | Peru | May 21, 2015 |
México, el rey de los centros comerciales | Milenio Diario | Mexico | May 18, 2015 |
Ideas innovadoras en centros comerciales, por Jorge Lizán | America Retail | Chile | May 18, 2015 |
Conceptos innovadores en Centros Comerciales Latinoamericanos | Perú Retail | Peru | May 11, 2015 |
Mall Rush | Shopping Centers Today | USA | May 1, 2015 |
Latino Lessons | Shopping Centers Today | USA | May 1, 2015 |
The Local Retail Touch | Shopping Centers Today | USA | May 1, 2015 |
Ideas Innovadoras en Centros Comerciales | Inmobiliare | Mexico | April 1, 2015 |
Conceptos de Retail Innovadores en Latinoamérica | Inmobiliare | Mexico | April 1, 2015 |
Se aprecian 50% locales en calle Madero | Reforma | Mexico | April 24, 2015 |
Los retailers y fondos de capital están llevando la delantera en la industria | Perú Retail | Peru | April 20, 2015 |
Concluye conferencia sobre inversión hotelera en México | Travel 2 Latam | Mexico | March 30, 2015 |
Retail en México: Inversión histórica en la industria de centros comerciales | Perú Retail | Peru | March 23, 2015 |
2015: Un año sólido para el desarrollo del retail en América Latina | Prensa Real Estate | Argentina | March 9, 2015 |
Inversión Histórica en Centros Comerciales | Al Detalle | Mexico | March 1, 2015 |
New Retail CRE Firm Gets Off Ground | GlobeSt | Global | March 2, 2015 |
Retail property veterans reveal details of new international agency | Property Week | Global | March 2, 2015 |
Wingrave, Thompson, Nutman launch Time Retail Partners | CoSrtar | Global | March 2, 2015 |
La quiebra de RadioShack y el futuro de sus franquicias | Perú Retail | Peru | February 23, 2015 |
Centros comerciales colombianos adoptan modelo internacional | America Retail | Chile | February 16, 2015 |
Lo mejor de lo mejor en diseño de tiendas a nivel mundial | Inmobiliare | Mexico | February 1, 2015 |
Uso mixto en América Latina, el punto de vista del arquitecto | Inmobiliare | Mexico | February 1, 2015 |
Los centros comerciales prosperando alrededor del mundo | Inmobiliare | Mexico | February 1, 2015 |
La industria de centros comerciales Peruana al final del 2014 – PARTE 2 | Prensa Real Estate | Argentina | February 11, 2015 |
2015 el año del Retail en México | Real Estate Market & Lifestyle | Mexico | February 1, 2015 |
Lo mejor de lo mejor en diseño de tiendas a nivel mundial | ObrasWeb | Mexico | February 1, 2015 |
La industria de centros comerciales Peruana al final del 2014 – PARTE 1 | Prensa Real Estate | Argentina | January 30, 2015 |
Retco traerá diez marcas al Perú | Gestión | Peru | January 26, 2015 |
NRF 2015: O crecimento internacional dos Shopping Centers | Universo Varejo | Brazil | January 19, 2015 |
Centros comerciales atraerán una inversión de US$18 mil millones en México | Perú Retail | Peru | January 15, 2015 |
Longa vida aos shoppings | Novarejo | Brazil | January 14, 2015 |
Habrá un crecimiento internacional en centros comerciales | Perú Retail | Peru | January 14, 2015 |
Centros comerciales en Colombia adoptan modelo internacional | América Economia | Latin America | January 13, 2015 |
Centros comerciales adoptan modelo internacional | El Espectador | Colombia | January 12, 2015 |
Bringing the World together: International Growth in Malls. | Stores 2015 BIG Show | USA | January 12, 2015 |
2015 to be a robust year for retail development in Latin America | SCT Iberoamérica | Latin America | January 7, 2015 |
Hay potencial para desarrollar centros comerciales | En Concreto | Mexico | January 1, 2015 |
Jorge Lizan is Managing Director of Lizan Retail Advisors (LRA), an advisory firm specialized in the Global Retail Real Estate Industry. LRA helps retailers, developers and investors with international business development, through Market Strategy, Franchising, Market Planning, Tenant Representation and Advisory services. Before founding LRA, Jorge served as the Vice President of Business Development of the International Council of Shopping Center (ICSC).
Copyright © 2015 Lizan Retail Advisors (LRA), All rights reserved.